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segunda-feira, 16 de setembro de 2019

### FREE WILL AND THE SOFT CONSTRAINTS OF REASON

This paper was first published in the journal Ratio 5, vol. 19, 2006, pp. 1-23 under the titel "Free will and the soft constraints of reason.". Summaries, grafics and footnotes are lost in this version. Most of its content is reproduced in the paper "Livre arbítrio para compatibilistas", also published in the blog. A completely revised version of the paper was published in the book "Lines of Thought: Rethinking Philosophical Assumptions", by Cambridge Scholars Publishing).



        REFINING THE TRADITIONAL COMPATIBILIST DEFINITION OF FREE WILL

                                                         
                                                                                                    Claudio F. Costa



Contemporary compatibilist definitions of free will are usually of two kinds. To the first kind belong restatements of the classical commonsensical view originally sustained by philosophers like Hobbes, Locke and Hume. A good statement of such a view was made by Sidney Hook in the following words:
Men are free when their actions are determined by their own will, and not by the will of others, or by factors that lead us to say that their actions were involuntary. To the extent that conditions exist which prevent a man from acting as he wishes (e.g. ignorance, physical incapacity, constraint used upon his body and mind) he is unfree.
Definitions like this make freedom wholly compatible with determinism. A decision of will is free, not because it breaks the chains of strict causality, as libertarianists and sceptics believe, but because it is a voluntary one, namely, a decision rightly caused by not being opposed to or independent of the will. According to this account, a person who makes a confession under torture doesn’t do so of his own free will, since he is being forced (caused) to act in opposition to his own will; and a person who makes a confession because he wants to tell the truth is acting freely, not because he isn’t being caused (since the moral commandment is the cause), but because he is being rightly moved (caused) to act by influences in accordance with his will.
     A different kind of compatibilist definition of free will is given by the many so-called hierarchical definitions, whose original source of inspiration has been Harry Frankfurt’s famous paper about freedom of will and the concept of a person.  Understanding a second-order volition as a second-order desire to be moved to action by a certain first-order desire, Frankfurt considered two cases. First, the case in which the agent succeeds in making his second-order volition effective upon the first-order desire, thereby turning the last into his own will; second, the case in which the agent remains unable to achieve this aim. In the first case the agent is free, while in the second he is not. Unlike in Hook’s definition, Frankfurt can explain, for example, why we reject the ascription of free agency to a person who is unable to win his struggle against his first-order desire to smoke. It is because he isn’t able to make his second-order volition effective: he does not successfully will, what he wants to will.
     Another well-known hierarchical definition of free will was proposed by Gary Watson.  Disagreeing with Frankfurt’s contention that the agent identifies himself with a desire by having a higher-order volition upon it, Watson has come to see free agency as depending on the governance of the agent’s motivational system (his desires and emotions) by his valuation system (what he regards as worth pursuing). Where this governance is lost, as in cases of compulsive choosers and kleptomaniacs, freedom of will is lost. These cases, again, can’t be dealt with by means of the unsophisticated traditional forms of definition.
     Certainly, each of these definitions of free will illuminates some aspect of the problem. But none of them has proved to be resistant to all conceivable counterexamples. To show this, consider the case of a suicide bomber who detonates a bomb, killing himself and others. He is acting voluntarily and unconstrained, satisfying Hook’s definition. He has completely submitted his first-order scruples to his second-order fanatical convictions, satisfying Frankfurt’s condition in a paradigmatic way. And what he thinks to be his motivational system is in full agreement with his valuation system, as Watson’s definition demands. However, is he deciding and acting freely? Here our intuitions come apart. In one sense, he is acting freely, since he is doing what he wishes. But in a more demanding sense, assuming that he is driven by a really restrictive fanatical conviction, most of us would say that his freedom is being impaired in what he is thinking, deciding and doing. However, compatibilist definitions like those of Hook, Frankfurt and Watson are unable to cope with the last intuition.
     Although there are a variety of non-classical attempts to circumvent counterexamples like this, the most elaborated and sophisticated of them is Richard Double’s autonomy variable strategy , which consists in the introduction of a series of conditions for free choice. These conditions – the autonomy variables – are self-knowledge (self-consciousness) reasonability (critical evaluation), intelligence (skill), efficacy (control) and unity (agency). Applying this strategy to the counterexample of the suicide bomber, one could say that his decision to kill himself and others isn’t free, insofar as it lacks self-knowledge and (particularly) reasonability.
     Nevertheless, Double’s strategy has its own shortcomings. Consider the case of threats. When someone gives his wallet to a mugger, who is holding a pistol, it seems clear that one has the freedom of choice (of retaining both his wallet and his life) impaired. However, when the person gives his wallet self-consciously, reasonably, intelligently, etc. satisfying the variables, Double must contra-intuitively admit that his choice is free.  Moreover, one could object that Double is somewhat arbitrarily picking up some main conditions satisfied by the most complex forms of free agency and imposing them as a criterion, in order to dismiss the counterexamples as unable to satisfy this standard; but this strategy lets aside the simpler forms, what leads him to be suspiciously unclear about the extent to which each autonomy variable must be satisfied.  Finally, he does not explicitly consider who decides whether the conditions are being satisfied; at least for the suicide bomber and his fellow terrorists, to commit suicide may be seen just as the final output of a longstanding development of self-knowledge, reasonability, etc.
      In our view, a problem with the non-classical compatibilist definitions of free will, as well as with some libertarianists’ definitions, is that they are seen as attempts to define freedom by means of its positive properties, while freedom is a more general and essentially negative concept, designating absence of restriction.  In what follows, I hope to develop this compatibilist insight, which underlines the classical view, in a way that makes it potentially able to neutralize any conceivable counterexample.

1. A Rough Commonsensical Definition
Beginning with common sense: how do we use words like ‘free’ and ‘freedom’ in ordinary contexts? There are two complementary definitions of freedom of will with which even a child would agree and that can be found in any dictionary, by looking up the word ‘freedom’ : (a) persons are free when they are autonomous, self-determining, when they can choose or act in conformity with their own nature and will; (b) persons are free when they can choose or act in the absence of limitation or constraint. These two ordinary senses were in many ways explored in the classic compatibilist definitions of Hobbes , Locke , and Hume  and in their contemporary restatements, like that of Sidney Hook. About the relationship between (a) and (b), I wish to suggest that they are respectively a positive and a negative way to express the same thing, namely, that to be autonomous or self-determining, to choose or act according to one’s own will, is only an affirmative way of asserting the negative fact that one is choosing or acting without being limited or constrained. The only difference is that while (a) refers to the subject choosing in the absence of restriction, (b) refers to the freedom viewed as nothing more than the absence of restriction in this choice. Conjoining (a) and (b), we arrive at the commonsensical definition of free will as the absence of restriction (limitation, hindrance, privation, obstruction, blockade, opposition, constraint, coercion, induction, oppression, necessity . . . ) in the natural exercise of will, choices and actions. I’m not alone in conflating the two definitions; a philosopher like Hobbes, who wrote that ‘LIBERTY or FREEDOME, signifieth (properly) the absence of opposition’ , also conjoined (a) and (b) by defining a free man as ‘he, that in those things, which by his strength and wit he is able to do, is not hindred to doe what he has a will to’.
     Indeed, it is because of this essentially negative understanding of freedom that we say that the claustrophobic’s will is made free after psychological treatment because now he can decide and act in a less constrained way, that we say that the slave is made free because limitations and coercions on his actions are removed, and that – in an analogical way – we also say that the water in a river flows freely after bursting a dam, because it is now unimpeded or unconstrained. Although always causally determined in a necessary and sufficient way, these decisions, actions and events are called ‘free’ in order to indicate that their causal determination isn’t restrictive.
     However, what about our fanatical suicide bomber? Is he in some way restricted in his decisions, judgments and actions? The rough, intuitive definition I’ve considered here doesn’t allow any clear answer. However, I would like to suggest that the only reason for this is that our commonsensical compatibilist definition, is too brief. In order to answer philosophical objections, the commonsensical view requires philosophical elaboration, as I intend to provide in what follows.
2. Origins and Modalities of Restrictions
A first generic feature of restrictions on freedom is somewhat obvious. It concerns their most evidently identifiable origins, which can be external or internal to the agent as a physical and mental person. When someone chooses to jump to his death from a burning building, he is not doing this freely, since he is being externally constrained. From the other side, when someone is driven to steal a bottle of wine because he is an alcoholic, this is an internally originated constraint on his freedom of will. In this sense, someone is free when neither externally nor internally restricted in his decisions or actions.
     A less obvious point concerns the analysis of the concept of restriction, which I wish to use here in the most general sense, encompassing the sense of cognate terms. There are two basic modalities of restriction, which I will call limitation and constraint. They were distinguished by Richard Taylor with the help of the following example.  Suppose that I put my right closed hand on a table with my second finger extended. In this case, I can move my finger to the right or to the left; I can’t move it down, because of the table, and I can’t move it up, because of anatomical limitations. Letting aside these two non-reasonable alternatives, I can say that my finger is free to move to the right and to the left and that this is the range of valid alternatives available to me in this particular situation. Now, this freedom can be restricted in two ways: by limitation (blockade, hindrance), when a heavy object is put on the left side of my finger, so that I can move it only to the right side, and by constraint (coercion, force), when someone holds my finger and moves it against my will to the left side.
     This distinction between limitation and constraint is important because it can be applied to all levels of freedom, not only the physical one. Restriction of freedom by limitation or hindrance or obstruction or blocking occurs when, from a range of contextually reasonable alternatives for action, decision or judgment, one or more are ruled out. Thus, if I’m in a bookstore and I don’t have enough money, I’m restricted by a limitation in the sense that my usual possibilities of choice are ruled out. On the other hand, a restriction by constraint occurs when someone is forced or coerced or compelled or induced to choose one or more alternatives for action, decision or judgment. If I’m in the bookstore and I meet my unloved boss who considers himself a poet, and he is promoting his book, it might be that circumstances induce me to buy his book against my better judgment, giving me a feeling that my freedom is restricted by a kind of constraint. All restrictions of freedom belong to one (or both) of these two basic modalities. In short: to act or decide freely is to act or decide without being restricted by limitations or constraints externally or internally originated.
     The following schema summarizes the distinctions traced until now:

        MAIN ORIGINS of                               MODALITIES of
          RESTRICTION:                                   RESTRICTION:
  INTERNAL   EXTERNAL      LIMITATION               CONSTRAINT
                                                (hindrance, privation        (coercion, induction
                                                obstruction, blockade…    force, oppression…)

3. Ranges of Alternatives
Before further improving our compatibilist analysis of freedom, there is an important feature of our ordinary concept of freedom that must be made more explicit if we want to prevent misunderstanding, namely, that it always works as a contextually-bounded concept. In order to make this clear, we return to Taylor’s example of the hand on the table: I’m free to move my finger to the right or to the left side. But it would not make much sense to say that I’m not free to move my finger because I can’t move it down, since it is on the table, or that I’m not free in moving it because for anatomical reasons I can’t move it up. It would be unreasonable to think so, because these alternatives are not part of what was originally meant in this particular case; they don’t belong to the present deliberative praxis, to the ‘language game’ that is played. Context (through the application of rules for its identification) has the power to determine what alternatives are reasonable enough to be taken into consideration.
     Although Taylor’s example concerns only physical freedom, the point about contextual bounds can be naturally extended to all levels of freedom. When I say, for example, that I’m free this weekend, I include in my modest range of alternatives the possibility of going to the movies, of going to the beach, of going to a new restaurant . . . but not the possibility of flying to Paris to dine in the Tour D’argent. I’m not entitled to say: ‘Poor me; I’ve not the freedom of choice to dine in the Tour D’argent this weekend.’ To consider this as a limitation of my freedom of will, of decision, of action, would be unreasonable in the context of my present life. Nor can I say that I’m being forced to remain on the surface of the earth this weekend against my will, since to see this as a constraint would once more exceed the range of alternatives reasonable in my case. Certainly, I might unseriously complain that I’m not free this weekend because I can’t have dinner in the Tour D’argent, but in this case, I’m not using the concept of freedom in a literal sense. Nevertheless, such complaints can be reasonable in other contexts, in which the supposed limitation or constraint could really restrict the range of alternatives actually expected. If I were a millionaire residing in New York, I would be possibly entitled to say: ‘Poor me; Concorde flights were suspended and I lost the freedom to have dinner in the Tour D’argent this weekend’; and if I were a future cosmic globetrotter and the flights to the Moon were cancelled, I could reasonably complain that I have lost my freedom to choose to go to the Moon this weekend.
      Generalizing, we can say that the concrete context of judgments, decisions and actions, the deliberative praxis the agent is playing normally gives place to certain ranges of alternatives. These ranges of alternatives are larger or smaller sets of choices that are considered reasonable by the person evaluating the agent’s freedom, so that our already explained concept of restriction (limitation or constraint) can be correctly applied only to what belongs to a contextually reasonable range of alternatives.
     A further important point about the context-relative character of the concept of freedom is related to the fact that the evaluation of an agent’s freedom or absence of freedom is primarily made interpersonally, by what I wish to call a judging subject. This judging subject must be aware of the context of the agent’s action or decision and of the available alternatives – which doesn’t exclude the possibility of the agent being himself the judging subject attempting a reflexive evaluation of his own freedom. It is the judging subject who, in his evaluations of freedom, decides what must be the contextually reasonable range of alternatives.
     We can illustrate our remarks about ranges of alternatives with the following schema:
            
                                                              AGENT                                                                               
                                            
                                     restrictions                 choice 
     JUDGING              of freedom
     SUBJECT   
                                                  contextually reasonable
                                                    range of alternatives
                                         
                                            conceivable range of alternatives…
                               
     The conceivable range of alternatives is simply without end, being of no relevance for our usual evaluations of freedom. This is why the fact that I can’t fly to Paris or to the Moon this weekend does not limit my freedom. What is of interest is the reasonable range of alternatives decided by the particular context of decision-making. Any choice is to be made within a reasonable range of alternatives, and the restrictions of freedom are always limitations and/or constraints within reasonable range of alternatives. These restrictions, one could say, always narrow the range of rational alternatives, diminishing the freedom in this way. Finally, the fact that a choice is made within a range of alternatives is no indication that this choice isn’t determined by necessary and sufficient causes, and an investigation of forms of this causal determination should belong to some theory of choice.
     Against these results, someone – maybe a libertarianist – could object: ‘The concept of freedom of will that you are analyzing in this detailed way is a trivial commonsensical concept. The concept we wish to investigate is a metaphysical one; we wish to investigate the boundless freedom endowed on the human subject, a freedom which is not contextually limited.’ To this objection, our answer is that a proper use of our concept of freedom is never independent of contextual limitations. Metaphysical or boundless freedom would require that the reasonable range of alternatives for our intentions, decisions and actions be identical with the infinite range of conceivable alternatives, which is untenable. The right metaphor for our situation is that of a bird that is restricted in its flight by the resistance of the air, though without this resistance it would not be able to fly at all. In the same way, we always need a limited range of alternatives to give a sense to the lack of restriction that is meant by freedom. Living in the land of milk and honey is the nearest thing to unrestricted freedom that we can imagine. But here, too, there must be some restriction. To believe that one could achieve boundless freedom, deciding, willing or acting beyond any contextually given range of rational alternatives, is like believing that a bird could fly without being supported by the air.
     Nevertheless, this appeal to the concept of boundless freedom isn’t totally devoid of reason. Although we can’t have such a concept of absolute freedom with an objective reference, we can construct a concept of freedom of will as a regulative idea in a Kantian sense, namely, as a notion without reference. Indeed, although devoid of any conceivable referential application, a regulative idea of boundless freedom would yet hold a regulative function, allowing us to compare decisions or actions as more or less free in accordance with their approximation to this ideal. Thus, if the possibility of having dinner in the Tour D’Argent this weekend belongs to my range of alternatives, my freedom of decision and action will be greater than the freedom I would have if my range of alternatives excluded this possibility. The concept of freedom that allows me to make this comparison is indeed an idea of boundless freedom that works only in a regulative way, without assuming the real existence of any object of application. I believe that some libertarianists confuse this regulative idea with our usual concept of freedom as effectively related to experience. This is why they insist that we must have a non-relative, ‘metaphysical’ concept of freedom of will, different from the ordinary compatibilist concept that we have analyzed so far.

4. Three Levels of RestrictionUntil now, we have defined the agent’s freedom as the absence of internally or externally originated limitations or constraints belonging to contextually reasonable ranges of alternatives. Now, a last and more elucidative distinction must be introduced between three levels of restriction, which might be called physical, volitional and rational. These three distinct levels of restriction can be deduced from the causal theory of action, as will be shown.  According to this theory, rational actions begin with a process of rational deliberation, the formation of a reason for action, which is a combination of desires and beliefs (for example: Tom desires to inherit his uncle’s fortune and he believes that the quickest way of bringing this about is by killing him). This reason causes the emergence of what might be called a prior volition or prior intention, this emergence being called a decision (Tom decides to kill his uncle). The prior volition causes an active volition or trying or intention in action, whose emergence is also a decision (Tom tries to kill his uncle). And this active volition directly causes bodily movements (Tom fires a gun at his uncle), which possibly cause other effects (the uncle dies, Tom inherits his fortune . . . ). – Of course, actions might also lack the higher levels of rational deliberation and/or prior volitions, for example, when someone scratches his back or when a violinist follows the conductor.
     Now, our proposal is that the basic structure of a reasoned action is linked in its junctures (and even in the formation of its elements) with possible restriction of freedom of similar nature, which are intervening causes, possibly coming from one or more parallel causal chains. This we try to summarize in the following schema:

    REASONED ACTION:       INTERVENING CAUSAL FACTORS
    (expected causal chain)        RESTRICTING FREEDOM:                             
                                                    (by limiting or constraining,
                                                     externally or internally, the
                                                     expected causal chain)

                 a) REASONS…                           (-)       BY REASONS…
                     (desires + beliefs)                               (desires + beliefs)
                             (-)                                           
                     Decision 1                                      
            b) PRIOR VOLITIONS                    (-)       BY VOLITIONS                
                     (or prior intentions)
                             (-)                                            
                          Decision 2                                     
                 c) ACTIVE VOLITIONS             (-)        BY VOLITIONS
 volitio-         (or intentions in action,
 nal                 or trying)                                    
 action                  (-)                                         
                 d) BODILY MOVEMENTS…     (-)        PHYSICAL
                             (-)
                 e) SUBSEQUENT CHAIN    (-)
                     OF EFFECTS

     In this schema, the arrows indicate causation, which, when restrictive, are followed by a ‘(-)’. There are clearly distinguishable moments in which causation might occur in the generation of a rational action, which are: (1) the moment between the process of deliberation and the formation of prior volitions or intentions (or active volitions, when there is no prior volition); (2-a) the moment between prior volitions and active volitions; (2-b) the moment between active volitions and the resulting bodily movements and their effects. This fact theoretically suggests that these causal relations can also be causally restricted on at least the following three distinct levels: (1) at the level of reasons, by (limiting or constraining) reasons interfering between the associative building of reasons and the resulting emergence of (prior or active) volitions; (2-a) at the level of volitions, by (impeditive or compelling) prior volitions interfering between the holding of prior volitions and the emergence of active volitions; (2-b) at the level of active volitions, by (impeditive or coercive) active volitions interfering between active volitions and bodily movements. Furthermore, there might be interfering physical restrictions (by blockade or force) at the distinct level (3) of bodily movements and also at the level of the subsequent extra-corporeal chain of effects, which are responsible for constraints in the physical liberty . . .
     In what follows, we will make this hypothesis plausible by means of a kind of cartographic study of free-agency, exemplifying these three levels of restriction of freedom in their connections with their external and internal origins and limiting and constraining modalities (for a synoptic view, see the schema in section 8).

5. First Level of Restriction: Physical
Physical restrictions, occurring against bodily movements, are easily identifiable. They are physical or corporal restrictions within a likewise physical range of alternatives related to the bodily movements, and they can be obstacles and constraints, which can be externally or internally originated.
     Examples of external physical limitations are those of the man locked in a cell or chained to a wall. They are limited in their physical freedom. Examples of internal physical limitation of physical freedom are those of a paraplegic unable to walk and of a castaway on the high seas who is too weak to help a drowning comrade. On the other hand, it is also easy to find examples of external physical constraints on physical freedom, like those of a prisoner forced to drink water out of a latrine and of a football referee who, after a game, is forced by the enraged rooters to swallow his whistle. Finally, an example of internal physical constraint is that of the compulsive motions in the pathology called St. Vitus dance, movements that are made against the will of the patient. (A more curious example would be the syndrome of the alien-hand, in which the hand often makes constraining actions beyond the control of the patient, like the attempt to strangle him during sleep). In these cases, the constraint is physical because it isn’t felt as a psychological coercion that belongs in some way to the person. Finally, it is important to realize that these restrictions on physical freedom are, typically, restrictions on freedom of action, also called liberty, not on what we usually call freedom of will.

6. Second Level of Restriction: Volitional
Because physical restrictions have to do with freedom of action rather than with freedom of will, more important for us are motivational and rational restrictions on our decisions and judgments. I wish to call ‘volitional restrictions’ the intervening desires or feelings restricting the ranges of alternatives existing between our previous volitions and our active volitions or between the active volitions and the bodily movements. Here again we find limitations or constraints with internal or external origins. Examples of internal volitional limitations of freedom of will are those of a person suffering from anorexia, who has a revulsion against eating, or of the soldier who isn’t capable of shooting an enemy because of an overwhelming moral revulsion. On the other hand, an example of internal volitional constraint is that of the alcoholic who is forced by his addiction to steal a bottle of alcohol from the kitchen of the hospital where he is interned.
     Volitional restrictions can also be externally originated. An example of an external volitional limitation is that of a small child who does not leave the playground behind his house because his overly anxious mother has prohibited him to do this. His fear to displease his mother may be stronger than any other cause, playing against the formation of his active volitions. On the other hand, when a child is forced by fear to apologize, it may be primarily the will of others against his own that compels this action: an externally originated volitional constraint.  Nevertheless, external origins don’t need to be volitional, since there is no need for origin and causal restriction to coincide. In fact, this is often the case when the most identifiable origin is the cause of the causal restriction, and not the restriction itself. Thus, when a person is forced to throw himself from a building on fire, the most evidently identifiable origin of this action is something external (the burning flames), which – through the pain of burning – produces an uncontrollable volitional reaction against the agent’s active will of not doing it. And when the mugger says, ‘The wallet or your life’, the usual option for both is denied, producing a loss of freedom; here too, though the origin is external (the threat with a pistol), the constraint is volitional, since it acts through the fear of pain and physical injuries.
     The expression ‘freedom of will’, which has a broader application in philosophy, should, when used in a more literal sense, be restricted to the absence of volitional restrictions on a person’s wishes and decisions. Frankfurt’s view could find its place here, by describing free will in its narrow sense, as the domination of first-order desires falling under ‘second-order volitions’ upon internally constraining first-order desires.

7. Third Level of Restriction: Rational
The third level of restriction is based on the fact that the process of reasoning might also suffer the restrictive influence of intervening causal reasons. For our aim here, this is of greater interest, since the majority of our counterexamples against the compatibilist view are found on this level. In what follows, I will make clear that the same origins and modalities of restriction hold at the level of reasons. Concerning modalities, it is easy to show that reasons can restrict in two ways: they can act like obstacles, limiting deliberation and the decisions constituting the previous volitions that would lead to actions, and they can also positively constrain us to judge, decide and subsequently act in alternative ways. Concerning the more evidently identifiable origins, I will show that restrictive reasons can be either internally or externally originated: they are internally originated when growing from the agent’s faculties of reasoning alone, and they are externally originated when established by others and then accepted and used by the agent.
     An example of internally originated limiting reason is that of a man suffering from paranoid schizophrenia who (wishing to remain healthy) refuses to eat, since he found (wrong) reasons to believe that the food given to him is poisoned; these (wrong) reasons conflict with his reasons to eat, limiting his range of alternatives. An example of internally originated constraining reason is that of a schizophrenic who shoots someone because he has heard voices that convinced him that the person was an agent of the devil, the same being true of the racist criminal who decides to murder as many black people as possible. Although they are the sole authors of their preferences and able to give rational justifications for their decisions, they are less free, since we reject their constraining reasons in favor of opposed reasons that we find much stronger.
     In the examples above the restrictive reasons are internal, since they originated in the agent himself. However, restrictive reasons can have an external origin too, such as the reasoning of another agent, group or community of agents. An example of external limitation by a reason – since this reason is generated within some social context – is that of someone who avoids signing a contract on Friday the 13th because he believes that this would bring bad luck. Though he wouldn’t agree, most people would consider this a cultural superstition imposing some external limitation on his freedom of choice. A similar case is that of someone who avoids drinking wine at a party because a religious commandment forbids him to drink alcohol. Non-religious people, or people of other religions, could see here a limitation on freedom imposed by reasons originated within a community of believers. Suppose now that his religion commands him to fast in order to purify his soul; in this case, non-religious people would not say that he is limited, but rather that he is constrained in his freedom by external religious reasons. More serious cases of constraint by externally originated reasons are those of the terrorist who, moved by wrong reasons, feels himself justified in killing innocent people or, to give an extreme example, the case of the members of Jim Jones’ sect, who were commanded – for external constraining reasons imposed by their leader – to commit collective suicide.
     At this point, we are already able to analyze the counterexample of the fanatical suicide bomber initially given, explaining why we have conflicting intuitions about it. When we consider only his physical freedom (the absence of physical restrictions) or his freedom of will in the strict sense of the word (the absence of volitional restrictions), the suicide bomber is obviously free. But when we consider his freedom of reasoning, we see that in him the usual reasons for action have been replaced by limiting and constraining reasons, which compel him to take his radical decisions and actions. His judgment (liberum arbitrium) is impaired, and therefore his subsequent decisions and actions, which permits us to say that in a full sense of the word (that of liberum arbitrium voluntatis) he isn’t free.
     It is noteworthy to remember that here as well we have some linguistic confirmation: the Latin expression liberum arbitrium, which can be translated as freedom of decision or of judgment, points to this kind of restriction of freedom: the restriction imposed by reasons. In fact, this restriction applies not only to practical, but even to theoretical reason. It can be a restriction on the level of practical reasons, the restriction impairing our concluding decisions about ‘what is to be done,’ as in the already considered examples; but it can also be a restriction on the level of theoretical reasons, impairing our concluding judgments about ‘what is the case.’ A narrow-minded art-critic, for example, might be someone whose judgment of artworks is limited or constrained by prejudices originating wrong evaluative reasons, in a way that plays a restrictive role with regard to his intellectual freedom. Restrictions can narrow the range of practical and even theoretical ranges of reasonable alternatives.
     There are several important points to be considered if we want to understand restrictive reasons. First, unlike physical and volitional restrictions, the person who acts is usually not aware that he is being limited or constrained by reasons. In the case of internal restrictive reasons, often the agent alone believes himself to be acting freely. Those who judge that a person is being restricted by his reasons are usually other people, with their own supposedly stronger opposing reasons, which they believe make the reasons claimed by the person unreasonable. When the rational restriction has an external origin, it is often not only the agent who is unaware that his range of alternatives is being restricted, but also all those persons who accept the reasons for his action or decision (for example, the members of his social group, his religion, his ideological fraction, his cultural community, etc.). This being so, restrictions on a person’s freedom of rational decision or judgment are usually identified from outside by persons who don’t share the same reasons, since the fellow fanatic, like the fellow sect member, etc. would not admit that his freedom is being impaired. This is why in such cases is essential to identify the judging subject, namely, the person who is evaluating the degree of freedom of a given agent.
     One might think that these considerations would lead us to a relativistic view of freedom on the level of reasoning. The argument would then be: The independent evaluator considers the decisions of the members of a certain group as less free because in the context he accepts a broader range of alternatives in the exercise of freedom of will as rational. But the members of the group have a similar right to say that such decisions are as free as they should be, since they have their own reasons to accept a smaller range of alternatives as more reasonable.
     Nonetheless, I don’t believe that this kind of consideration would lead us to relativism. Though there may be strong emotional resistance, it is conceivable that in a critical dialogical context, reasons can be put one against the other and compared in a relatively neutral way. Jürgen Habermas calls such a dialogical context an ideal speech-situation (ideale Sprachsituation). In this context reasons could be juxtaposed and comparatively evaluated by supposedly non-compromised, truth-committed, similarly skilled and well-informed judges, acting without constraints going beyond the soft constraints of the best reasons.  In this case, the reasons given by the members of the radical sect can be rejected as, say, incompatible with our scientific image of the world, and the reasons given by the politically fanatical terrorist might be overridden by considerations of basic human values, or we hope so.
     Finally, Watson’s view seems to find its place on this third level, by focusing on cases concerning the governance of less rational volitions by volitions resulting from more reasonable reasons.

8. Pulling the Threads Together
Now we can make some general comments. A point to be remembered is that the nature of restrictions must match the nature of what is being restricted: a restriction on action will affect a physical range of alternatives; a volitional restriction will affect a range of motives for action; a rational restriction will affect a range of reasons for decisions or judgments. A further point is that the levels of restrictions are interdependent: restrictions on the volitional level, coming earlier in the causal chain, compromise the freedom of action too, while restrictions on the level of reasoning compromise both of them, and restrictions on the level of action compromise none of them causally, though they are able to restrict the range of choices to be considered rational.
     We can summarize what we have said about modalities, origins and levels of restriction of freedom in a more complete schema:

             Modalities of
                Restriction:           Limitation                     Constraint
                  
                      Origins:   external     internal       external      internal
Levels of      
Restriction        
RATIONAL                     (restriction on           (restriction on freedom
                                          freedom of                of judgment)
                                          decision or of
VOLITIONAL                 will in its broad         (restriction on freedom
                                          sense)                        of will properly)
                                                              
PHYSICAL                      (restriction on freedom of action or liberty)
                                               
     Possessing these distinctions, we can state a sufficiently elaborated multi-level compatibilist definition of the freedom exercised by an agent a (including his free will), and freedom of the agent a himself, both relative to a judging subject s (where possibly s = a) respectively as follows:

(a) Definition of agential freedom: An action or decision or judgment of an agent a is free from theperspective of a judging subject s iff a is neither externally nor internally limited or constrained on the corporal, volitional and rational levels, within a contextually determined range of alternatives.

(b) Definition of a free agent: An agent a is free from the perspective of a judging subject s iff a is neither externally nor internally limited nor constrained in his actions, decisions and judgments respectively on the corporal, volitional and rational levels, within contextually determined ranges of alternatives.

Our suggestion is that definitions like these would be able to exhaust what we essentially mean by free will and free agency.
     A possible objection would emerge from the consideration that we have two kinds of freedom: positive and negative. As defined by Isaiah Berlin, they are respectively ‘the freedom which consists in being one’s own master and the freedom which consists in not being prevented from choosing as I do by other men’.  So, one could suggest that our definition allows us to explain negative freedom, not the positive one. However, our categories also invite us to see Berlin’s distinction as resulting from the failure to understand that autonomy amounts here to the same as lack of constraint. The distinction seems to make sense because with the words ‘negative freedom’ – not being prevented from choosing – we are in fact referring to a lack of  restriction by limitation, while with ‘positive freedom’ – being one’s own master – we might be in fact referring to the lack of restriction by constraints or coercion. This shows that both kinds of freedom are, at bottom, negative.

9. Application of the Definition to Some Difficult Cases
The definitions given above allow us to neutralize many, if not all supposed counter-examples to compatibilist accounts of freedom of will, including those of covert non-constraining manipulation.  I will consider some of them.
     1. Consider the case of a woman who, induced by the social milieu in which she lives, spends a great share of her money on superfluous purchases. However, some time later she comes to the conclusion that social pressures have impaired her freedom, a judgment that many of us would consider justified. This subtle case of non-constraining coercion doesn’t satisfy definitions of free will like those of Hook, Frankfurt, and Watson: the woman spends her money voluntarily, her primary wishes are in accordance with her higher-order volitions, and her motivational system is in consonance with her valuation system at the time of her decisions and actions. Nevertheless, the case doesn’t satisfy our multi-level definition of free will. Although from her own point of view at the time of her actions she wasn’t restricted, when she later – as a judging subject of herself – sees her past actions as limited in their freedom, she sees herself as an agent who was restricted in her reasons and volitions, since by being influenced by bogus reasons and inauthentic desires, she was led to overlook the wider range of reasonable alternatives available to her.
     2. Imagine now that a person opens a window as a result of post-hypnotic suggestion.  When we ask him why he did this, he gives a bogus explanation, perhaps that he needs some fresh air. Our intuition says that in a sense he is free, but that in some important sense his behaviour isn’t the result of a free decision of the will. Here also our more elaborated form of the commonsensical definition of free will can help to explain the conflicting intuitions. When we consider only his action, his decision and the reason he gives, we think that he is free, since we see no restriction. But when we consider the whole context of reasons causing his decision and action, his normal behaviour, derived from his true wishes and beliefs, has been altered by constraining external reasons that remain unconscious. Consequently, a full consideration of reasons shows that the person is only partially free.
     3. Another case is that of psychoanalytical treatment.  Successful psychoanalytical therapy, by making the patient aware of his unconscious desires and thoughts, is said to increase his freedom. Our definition can explain why. The repression of thoughts has restrictive effects, limiting the patient’s alternatives of thought and behaviour and, more obviously, constraining him to neurotic thoughts and behaviour as alternative ways of liberating affective intensities associated with repressed thoughts. By making repressed unconscious thoughts conscious, psychoanalysis should help the patient to build more complex and less restrictive ranges of decisional and behavioral alternatives, enabling him to deliberate and choose in ways comparable to those available to a healthy person under similar circumstances.
     4. One can also consider Frankfurt’s cases, such as that of person A, who quits smoking, in contrast to person B, who continues to smoke against his will. Why do we say that A has more freedom? Here again, our definition of free will allows us to give an uncontestable answer. We see that B in some measure remains motivationally constrained by his desire to smoke, like A; but A’s decision of not smoking, resulting from better reasons (whether monitored by second-order attitudes or not), is stronger than his desire to smoke, producing an unconstrained free action.
     5. Suppose now that without his knowledge, a person has implanted in his brain a device by means of which a nefarious neurosurgeon is able to control his wishes and decisions, so that this person does things that he would not do under normal circumstances.  This thought-experiment has conceptual limits in the criteria of personal identity, since when the changes are too great, either the subject is transformed into a marionette and ceases to be a person, or the subject is transformed into a completely different person. Thought of in such ways, this counterexample misses its target, for if there is no person, we can’t apply the concept of freedom, since we can apply this concept properly only to agents, and if a person becomes another person, we can’t say that the person has lost his freedom, since for this the person must remain the same. Nonetheless, one can suppose that only some of the agent’s desires, thoughts, decisions, and actions are influenced by the nefarious neurosurgeon, so that the person remains essentially the same, except for some strange episodic decisions and actions. Intuitively we see that some freedom is lost. But our definition shows why: it is because the range of rational alternatives available to the agent is sometimes impaired or constrained by occasional external interference at some level (see case 2). To see the limits of this thought-experiment, suppose now that the neurosurgeon were able to increase the person’s range of alternatives, perhaps by activating new neuronal pathways, which would be able to widen his capacity of deliberation and decision. In this case, being the person able to discriminate more alternatives, he gains an increased range of alternatives, and we would say that the neurosurgeon, like the Oriental sage, has increased the agent’s freedom (see case 3).
     I don’t wish to bore you by discussing all conceivable counterexamples. My point is that the notion of restriction permeates all our uses of the concept of freedom, and my conclusion is that by investigating in some detail the higher modalities of agential restriction we are able to refine the rough commonsensical view of free will in a way that makes unnecessary an appeal to a libertarianist alternative. Of course, libertarianists would still disagree. Maybe they would say with Robert Kane that what is at stake is not ordinary freedom as an absence of restriction, but freedom as ‘the power of agents to be the ultimate creators (or originators) and sustainers of their own ends and purposes’.  To this we would reply with the suggestion that our capacity of repeatedly and systematically realizing actions, decisions and judgments within contextually reasonable ranges of alternatives without physical, volitional or rational, internal or external limitations or constraints, amounts to the same as our power to be the ultimate creators and sustainers of our own ends and purposes in any intelligible sense of this statement.


domingo, 28 de julho de 2019

SKEPTICAL ILUSIONS

This is a draft for the last chapter of the book to be called BASIC EPISTEMOLOGY.



IV
 LIMITS OF KNOWLEDGE


The difficulty is to realize the groundlessness of our believing.
Wittgenstein

Scepticism is doubt regarding the indubitable. Philosophers have constructed arguments that lead us to questioning things we normally consider certain, like knowledge by testimony, existence of other minds, existence of the external world, inductive knowledge, and even the existence of any knowledge – with the exception of their own knowledge that there is no knowledge, of course, in order to save them from self-contradiction. These arguments are important for epistemology, not as much because they seem to be sound, but mainly because they offer a challenge to the epistemologist – and much philosophical progress is dialectically tributary to challenges like these. Moreover, they help us to establish the limits of our meaningful language and knowledge. Answering the sceptics might allow us to distinguish real questions that can be rationally answered from pseudo-questions that only invite us to produce pointless pseudo-answers. They are only apparently meaningful, because they transcend the limits of what can be cognitively questioned and answered. In what follows, I will restrict myself to the discussion of two such cases: scepticism about induction and scepticism about the external world.

1. Scepticism about induction
Scepticism about induction was introduced by David Hume, entangled with his analysis of causation. Since I am interested here in scepticism about induction, I will strongly reconstruct the argument, separating it from his analysis of causation.
   First, you probably know the form of an enumerative inductive argument: we have a thing[1] A that is associated with a thing B on all occasions, for instance, fire is always associated with heat, which serves as the premise for the conclusion that the next time there is a fire it will heat its surroundings, or even for the generalization that fire will always produce heat. Inductive inferences can be not only from the past to the future (as in the case above), but also from a recent past to a distant past (fire has always heated  its surroundings, dinosaurs once inhabited the earth), and from different locations to new ones, actual or not (like fire in Europe, fire in Burma will heat its surroundings, as much as a fire in Kamchatka heated its surroundings during the last Ice Age). There are other important forms of inductive reasoning, like the inference to the best explanation (abduction). We came to the conclusion that the moon is illuminated by the sun, causing its different phases, because we always see the sun on the side of the sky opposed to the illuminated side of the moon. More than any other hypothesis, this is the best explanation for the phases of the moon. Since premises can be true and despite this the conclusion false, this inference is inductive. Moreover, it seems clear that this kind of inductive inference is based on numerous previous enumerative inferences, like the view that rightly placed luminous physical bodies illuminate non-luminous bodies.
   The Humean question was: how do we know that the premises of a strong inductive argument make the conclusion probable? His answer was the appeal to a metaphysical principle of the regularity or uniformity of nature, which concerning the causal relation can be expressed in the statement that the future will be like the past. We can express the argument as follows:

          A
1.    The future will be like the past.[2]
2.    Fire has always heated its surroundings.
3.    The next fire will heat its surroundings.

Since we wish to contemplate the different extensions of induction in time and space, we can state the principle of uniformity more broadly as follows:

PU:  (i) The future must be like its past, (ii) the less recent past must be like its more recent past, (iii) the next location of space must be like the already known ones.[3]

If PU(i) is correct, then the inductive force of the argument is warranted. A first problem with PU(i) is that this principle is not analytic-conceptual. One can deny it without contradiction or incongruency. “The future will not be like its past” is a perfectly meaningful sentence. If it is so, then PU(i) must be a synthetic statement. But this seems to mean that it is based on experience. Reflecting on this, a Humean sceptic could pose against PU(i) the following question: how do we know the principle of uniformity? The answer concerning PU(i) seems to be the following:

1.    All the futures of our pasts were like their own pasts.
2.    Hence (probably) the future (of our present) will be like its past. 

There is, however, a serious problem with this argument: it is an inductive one. That is, we are trying to warrant our inductive arguments by means of a principle based upon induction, and this is circular. We are committing a petitio principii by trying to justify something using what we intend to justify in the justification. The same can be said regarding the two other parts of PU. Concerning PU(ii) we have the following example:

1.    The less recent past must be like its more recent past. (PU(ii))
2.    In the recent past fire has always heated things.
3.    Hence (probably) in the remote past fire also heated things.

Concerning PU(iii) (plus PU(ii)) we have also a similar example:

1.    The next region of space must be like the already known region of space. (PU(iii))
2.    The less recent past must be like its more recent past. (PU(ii))
3.    In the recent past fire has always heated things in all regions of earth.
4.    Hence (probably) fire heated things in Kamchatka during the Ice Age.

Hume’s conclusion, based on an analysis restricted to PU(i), was downright sceptical: we cannot warrant our inductive arguments. And this conclusion must be obviously extended to PU(ii) and PU(iii), since these parts of our version of the principle of uniformity also depend on inductive reasoning to be established.
   The conclusion is that we have no reason to believe that the sun will rise tomorrow or that in the remote past fire heated things or that it heated things in Kamchatka during the last Ice Age… Neither our empirical science nor our common sense knowledge of the world have any rational warrant.
   According to Hume, we have only a psychological disposition to believe in our inductive results, since they form a habit or custom for us: we have the habit to expect that the next fire will heat things or that the sun will rise tomorrow in the same way insects have the instinctive tendency to follow light (1764: 75). However, with the queer exception of Karl Popper, few philosophers have followed Hume on this point.

2. A general answer
There have been many intelligent attempts to solve Hume’s problem of induction, all of them in one way or another disappointing. There is, however, one that seems to me to touch the very heart of the problem, though it has never been sufficiently developed. It is suggested in the words of Jenny Teichman and C. C. Evans (1999), in their short introduction to philosophy:

It would be impossible to say truly that the universe is a chaos, since if the universe were genuinely chaotic there would not be a language to tell it. A language depends on things and qualities having enough persistence in time to be identified by words and this same persistence is a form of uniformity.

The philosopher Keith Campbell made the same point earlier. As I understand him, he noted that the world must have sufficient order to allow us to reapply a concept, since if our concepts could not be reapplied, they could not be interpersonally checked, and therefore could not be established as concepts (1974: 80-83). Indeed, concepts could not turn out to be intersubjectively granted and consensually associated with conceptual words.
   Although emphasizing language, what these authors grasped is that it doesn’t matter how disorderly a world is, if it is recognizable as a world, it must have enough order (spatial and temporal) to be open to some kind of inductive access. That is, a possible world is only conceivable if it is open to induction. Openness to induction is a condition of possibility for the cognition of any possible world.
   We can order these intuitions about the relationship between world (or universe), and induction in the form of the following argument:

1.    Any possible world must be at least conceivable.
2.    Any conceivable world should have at least some degree of regularity.
3.    Any world that has some degree of regularity is open to some kind of inductive procedure.
4.    (1-3) Any conceivable world must be open to some kind of inductive procedure.
5.    Any world must be conceivable.
6.    (4,5) Hence, any world must be open to some kind of inductive procedure.
7.    Corollary to 6: our world is open to some kind of inductive procedure;

The central idea in this argument is that the existence of a fully chaotic world is impossible, since such a world would be inconceivable and we cannot speak meaningfully of worlds that are inconceivable, that is, in no sense imaginable, since this does not belong to the concept of world (or universe) as we are able to understand it.
   One reason why this idea can meet some resistance is that the literature on the problem of induction is full of references to chaotic worlds which are inaccessible to inductive procedures. This is, however, a tragic mistake, and I am sorry to say that that the person most responsible for this mistake was Hume himself. This mistake arose from his objection against the justifiability of induction restricted to his analysis of causality, which is based on UP(i). Causality is typically what we could call a case of diachronic regularity, which occurs when in a regular way an event A occurs temporally earlier than an event B. This is clear in Hume’s counter-inductive examples, which go from Adam, who seeing a lake for the first time did not know that the water could drown him, to falling snow that unexpectedly burns and flowers that unexpectedly bloom in the middle of winter (1764: 35). If induction were restricted to diachronic regularities, it would suffice to imagine a frozen world – a world without any diachronic regularity – and it would be a world impervious to induction. However, focusing on diachronic regularities leads us to forget another, equally important form of regularity also assumed by UP, namely, synchronic regularity. The state of affairs that Notre Dame is on the Ille de France, the situation that the Tower of Pisa leans and the supposed fact that Cleopatra had a big nose are all synchronic regularities. These synchronic regularities are often called structures. A gothic cathedral has a very complex synchronic structure and has usually existed over a long period of time. Synchronic regularities are, however, objects of induction as much as diachronic regularities, since only induction allows us to foresee that synchronic regularities perceived in the past will endure in the future. Notre Dame will remain on the Ille of France, the Tower of Pisa will continue to lean, Cleopatra supposedly had a big nose until her death, the gothic Cathedrals are expected to preserve their structures through the centuries, all this we believe as result of induction.
   When we realize that our world is made up as much of diachronic regularities as also of synchronic regularities, then it becomes clearly impossible to think that we are able to conceive a world without regularities. Consider, for instance, one among the many attempts to imagine a world so completely chaotic that it would be a world without regularities. We can appeal to ‘complete transformations of the world’ as described in many fictional books. I choose the following passage from Sartre’s novel Nausea. It reminds us of surrealistic art, such as the paintings of Dali:

It can happen any time, perhaps right now: the omens are present. For example, the father of a family might go out for a walk, and, across the street, he’ll see something like a red rag, blown towards him by the wind. And when the rag has gotten close to him, he’ll see that it is a side of rotten meat, grimy with dust, dragging itself along by crawling, skipping, a piece of writhing flesh rolling in the gutter, spasmodically shooting out spurts of blood. Or a mother might look at her child’s cheek and ask him: "What's that – a pimple?" and see the flesh puff out a little, split, open, and at the bottom of the split an eye, a laughing eye might appear. Or they might feel things gently brushing against their bodies, like the caresses of reeds to swimmers in a river. And they will realize that their clothing has become living things. And someone else might feel something scratching in his mouth. He goes to the mirror, opens his mouth: and his tongue is an enormous, live centipede, rubbing its legs together and scraping his palate. He’d like to spit it out, but the centipede is a part of him and he will have to tear it out with his own hands. And a crowd of things will appear for which people will have to find new names—stone-eye, great three-cornered arm, toecrutch, spider-jaw. And someone might be sleeping in his comfortable bed, in his quiet, warm room, and wake up naked on a bluish earth, in a forest of rustling birch trees, rising red and white towards the sky like the smokestacks of Jouxtebouville, with big bumps half-way out of the ground, hairy and bulbous like onions. And birds will fly around these birch trees and pick at them with their beaks and make them bleed. Sperm will flow slowly, gently, from these wounds, sperm mixed with blood, warm and glassy with little bubbles. (…)

At first glance, these changes are extreme. Nonetheless, there is nothing in this report (or in any report of the kind) that makes it really chaotic. Although the living rotten meat crawling to the family father is indeed a strange creature, its unexpected properties are all already well-known. Moreover, even the individuals suffering changes, like the child, an eye, a man, a tongue, birch trees, birds, can be also identified, although their also well-known new properties are unexpected and frightening. The centipede behaves like a centipede and human beings react desperately as expected in the such situations. What Sartre describes is based on a considerable number of well-known synchronic and diachronic regularities combined in unexpected ways, and the only reason why we are able to fully understand the description and react to it is because of our acquaintance with all these well-known regularities. In fact, if all regularities could be erased, the text would lose any intelligibility. The future, at least in proportion to its greater proximity to the present, must maintain sufficient similarity to its past to allow an application of inductive procedures, making us recognize the continuity of the same world we know today, notwithstanding how many unexpected and undesirable changes come to pass.
   We can do some thought-experiments in order to reinforce these conclusions. Imagine a frozen world without any diachronic regularities. This world would still have the regularity of the permanence of its form or structure, once we apply inductive reasoning to foresee that it would remain the same world in the next moment or over the whole period of its existence. Imagine by contrast a world formed by a note of a single pitch or a blinking red light that repeats itself at aleatory intervals. Once it ceases to repeat, this world ceases to exist. But this minimalist world still has the regularity of repetition. Hence, one could inductively expect this repetition.
   One can complain that it may be difficult to apply induction when the regularities are few. But this remark ignores a logical point. Induction is theoretically flexible. The required inductive search can be calibrated in conformity with circumstances. When the probability to find a regularity is lower, we expand the inductive search. Consider, for instance, the wild camels of the Gobi desert. The expanse of the Gobi desert is immense. It includes the north of China and the whole of Mongolia. And these shy camels are rare, supposing they have not yet become extinct. You can visually survey a vast expanse of desert, searching up and down the hills with powerful binoculars until you find a Gobi camel, if you have luck. The pressure of inductive calibration must be very high in this case.
   The general conclusion is that some principle of uniformity must be applicable, insofar as we might assume cognitive access to the world. As we will see, we lack a formulation of this principle that is sufficiently precise and adequate instead of vague and misleading.

3. Searching for more appropriate answers
When we more carefully consider the temporal dimensions (i) and (ii) and the spatial dimension (iii) of PU, within which we apply inductive reasoning, we see that much more must be taken into consideration.[4] Consider PU(i): the principle that the future will be like its past. What is meant with PU(i) is vague. Suppose we take it literally (like Hume) and deny this by saying that the future will not be like its past. This denial does not seem to contain any contradiction, which means that PU(i) is not analytical. This is not desirable, since PU(i) cannot be synthetic a posteriori or empirical, and since we do not wish to accept a principle of uniformity that is synthetic a priori; such a principle would go against the very plausible view according to which all (or almost all) our empirical knowledge is fallible. Moreover, the literal reading of PU(i) as telling us that all of the future will be similar to its past is obviously wrong. Not only does nothing prevent great unexpected changes (a great meteor collides with the earth, etc.), but considering the infinitude of time, the distant future can be utterly different from our past. Suppose, for instance, you could observe the world some micro-seconds after the big-bang. The future in which there would be myriads of galaxies with stars and planets, some of them with life and consciousness like we find on the earth, would be utterly different from what was going on at that moment.
   However, there is something analytically right in PU(i). Although the future can be different from its past, it cannot be completely different from its past, or at least the near future cannot be. For in this case, how could we identify a future as the future of its own past? We must interpret PU(i) as saying that the future, insofar as it approaches the present, must be sufficiently similar to its past in order to be the future of its own past. Call the future of our world FW0. It must, at least insofar as it approaches the present, be more like its past, in order to be identified with the future of the past W0 or PW0. If it were not so, it could be identified with the past of any possible future world, say, of FW1, FW2, FW3… and we would lose the proper way of distinguishing it. (Moreover, this related transition from past to future must be spatially located: imagine, for instance, that the near past of a sunny day in London is suddenly replaced by the near future on Calisto, a satellite of Jupiter.)
   If we wish to warrant induction, we must read the principle that the future must be like its past in a more precise and adequate way. We must refine PU(i) so that it shows itself as something analytic-conceptual and a priori in this harmless sense. In order to show that such a reading is possible, consider the following example:

Presently, at time T0, there is a piece of wax. This piece of wax is warmed and in T1 it changes from a solid to a liquid state. Until now, most things have remained the same, not only the atomic constitution of the wax, but also the molecular constitution that makes up what we commonly call wax. Then, in T2 the wax is warmed much more, so that what remains are only ashes. The chemical constitution of the wax is now lost, the atoms of oxygen have disappeared, only the atoms of carbon are still there. Now, suppose that the process of heating continues and that the carbon ash is heated by hundreds of millions of degrees, so that in T3 the atoms disintegrate and all that remains is a plasma of sub-atomic particles.

It is easy to understand what this progression shows: the nearer the future is to the present, the more properties it still has in common with the present, until the point of junction of the future and the past – which is the present – a point of complete identity, where all properties are the same. The same rule is valid considering the relation between the present and its past. Furthermore, the example with the piece of wax can be generalized. It can be applied to any domain of our world. On any level, this same pattern repeats itself: Natura non facit saltus. For instance, the industrial revolution began in the second half of the XVIIIth century. But if we consider the changes in a short period of time, such as from 1760 to 1800, we can find only a few changes, like the introduction of mechanized weaving machines in England and a small rural exodus in England. Large-scale iron and steel production, steam power, steamships, locomotives and railways, the great rural exodus and serious social tensions… had to wait until the next century. Certainly, there are anomalous progressions in which a near future can for a while be more different from the present than a more distant future, but in this case, you can consider only the nearest future, or you can consider a broader interval that includes this kind of anomaly but makes it irrelevant. To give an analogy, consider the following anomalous progression: {1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5…}. The fact that some numbers are unexpectedly nearer to 1 does not change the fact that this is a positive numerical progression, and many variants, also anomic ones, can be added. Looking for a real empirical example, consider the continued economic development of a country, with all its booms and busts.
   Using the word ‘tendency’ to discard possible anomalies, the principle that the future will be similar to its past can be improved as follows:

UP(i)* Tendentially, the nearer the future is to its point of junction with its past (i.e., the present), the more similarities will be held with its past, being both the same at the point of junction.

I would understand this reading of UP(i) as analytic-conceptual. We cannot deny it without saying something incongruent, if not contradictory. We cannot deny that there is a tendency to the annulation of the differences between future and past the nearer they approximate to the present. Now we can warrant inductive probability by means of an analytic-conceptual (a priori) principle:

1.    Tendentially, the nearer the future is to its own past, the more similarities it will have with its past.
2.    In the past fire always heated things.
3.    The next fire will (probably) heat things.

This seems to me sufficient to inductively warrant that the next fire will probably heat things.
   Consider now the other sub-principles of uniformity. Sub-principle UP(ii) represents no problem, since it is UP(i) projected onto the past. But sub-principle (iii) still requires some explanation. The principle that one region of space must be like another, taken strictly, is certainly false. The region of the Côte d’Azur must be very different from the region of a black hole. We are in fact speaking of proximal regions. Thinking in this way we can state the principle of spatial uniformity in a way that is analogous to the above principles of temporal uniformity:

UP(iii)*: Tendentially, the nearer one spatial region is to the spatial region we have already considered, the more similar this spatial region will be to the spatial region we are considering, both being the same in their point of junction (i.e., the spatial limit).

For instance: suppose that we can see part of a checkerboard surface. You can be fairly sure that the next segment we see of the same surface will also have a checkerboard pattern. We expect based on experience that unknown space will preserve regularities in the same way as time. UP(iii)* is also analytic-conceptual: you cannot deny this tendency without contradiction.[5] Indeed, if this principle is constitutive of the way we are able to access any possible world in its temporal dimension, it cannot be logico-conceptually refuted.
   Outflanked, the sceptic could appeal to a drastic objection. Even if we concede that a world, in order to be a world, must have enough uniformity to make possible the use of inductive procedures, there is nothing that absolutely warrants the continuity of anything. Suppose that our whole world disappears five seconds from now. Nothing in our principle of uniformity PU(i)* would prevent this possibility! To this consideration one has the inclination to answer in the affirmative, admitting that there is nothing to warrant the permanence of our world. Hume was, after all, right!
   Nonetheless, when we think about this sceptical objection more carefully, we see that the true answer is a different one. The truth is that this sceptical objection makes no sense, because it requires a completely unverifiable answer. If the universe disappears in five seconds, there will be no one to verify this disappearance.[6] In this regard, it makes no sense to speak about what you logically cannot know. The situation seems to be possible because we can imagine the world disappearing with us as if we could be transcendent observers of this dissolution.[7] In other words, we have arrived at the limits of what we can meaningfully think and know. The sentence “We and our whole world could disappear in the next five seconds” is like the sentence “The whole world doubled its size last night”. It might be dizzying, but it has only a grammatical sense and an emotional effect – not a cognitive sense.

4. Scepticism about the external world
The second famous sceptical argument aims to show that we cannot know the existence of the external world. I call it the argument for ignorance about the external world. This argument makes use of sceptical hypotheses about the external world. Hence, in order to explain it I begin by giving three examples of this kind of sceptical hypotheses:

h1: The external world is a dream.
h2: I am a soul being deceived by a malign genie that produces in me the coherent hallucination of an external world.
h3: I am a brain-in-a-vat with all afferent and efferent neuronal bundles linked to a supercomputer on the planet Omega; the program of this supercomputer makes me believe that I am living a normal life on the planet earth.

The argument for ignorance is based on the fact that it seems impossible to prove that the sceptical hypotheses are false. This might seem strange, but it is at least logically possible, a possibility that is explored in science fiction films like Matrix or The Real Thing. Now, applying hypothesis h3[8], the sceptic can argue as follows. If I cannot know that I am a brain-in-a-vat, then I cannot know that I really have two hands or that I am typing on a real computer keyboard; hence, since I cannot know that I am not a brain-in-a-vat, I cannot know that I have two hands or that I am typing… Putting this argument in conventional form we have the following modus ponens:

        Instance of AI:
1.    I do not know that I am not a brain-in-a-vat.
2.    Since I do not know that I am not a brain-in-a-vat, I cannot know that I have two hands.
3.    Hence, I cannot know that I have two hands. (MP 1, 2)

Indeed, if I cannot know whether or not I am a brain-in-a-vat, then I cannot know if I have two hands, since a brain-in-a-vat does not have two hands (but only imagines having them). Hence, if I do not know that I am not a brain-in-a-vat, I cannot know that I have two hands.
   Now, replacing any trivial proposition about the external world by p, and using K as a knowledge-operator applied by some epistemic subject a, we can symbolize in a generalized form the argument for ignorance, aiming to show that in fact we know nothing about the external world:

         AI:
1.    ~a(K~h)
2.    ~a(K~h) → ~aKp
3.    ~aKp (MP 1, 2)

The argument of ignorance seems to show that since we cannot know that the sceptical hypothesis is false, we cannot acquire any substantive knowledge about the external world. This shares with other sceptical arguments a property noted by Hume: they do not admit of answers and do not produce conviction (1748: 155).
   There is a contrapositive to this argument, made famous in an article by the English philosopher G. E. Moore. His approach was to begin by acknowledging that we at least know with certainty that many trivial things around us do exist. As he wrote:

I can prove that two human hands exist. How? Raising my two hands and making a certain gesture with my right hand: “Here is a hand”. And then making the same gesture with the left: “Here is another hand”. (1939)

We can modify Moore’s statements a bit, from an argument to prove the existence of the world to an anti-sceptical argument – call it the argument for knowledge regarding the external world. The conventional form of this argument will be the following modus ponens:

   Instance of AC:
1.    I know that I have two hands.
2.    If I know that I have two hands, then I know that I am not a brain-in-a-vat.
3.    I know that I am not a brain-in-a-vat. (MP 1, 2)

Or, in a generalized symbolic form:

        AC:
1.    aKp
2.    aKp → ~a(K~h)
3.    ~a(K~h)

The two arguments seem to have the same force. The question, however, persists, since it is contradictory that we have two equally powerful arguments leading us to opposite results.

5. Some attempted ways of answering
There are many attempts to answer the argument of ignorance about the external world. Hilary Putnam’s answer, for instance, would be that we cannot be brains in vats because according to his externalist theory of meaning we would need to have causal experience of things in the world in order to know their meaning. Now, if we can imagine that we are brains in vats seeing trees, then we must have had the experience of real external things like trees and vats and even brains, which means that we cannot be brains-in-vats. In the end, all that the brain-in-a-vat causally experiences are electrical patterns of trees, or images he may produce of vats, which are also originated from electrical patterns produced by the supercomputer. One could answer that at least the people who manufactured the supercomputer and created its programs had the causal experience of trees and vats and brains. In this case, they would be caused by these things to create the programs that indirectly caused our pattern images and our false idea that we could be brains-in-vats. Putnam’s answer to this would be that the brain-in-a-vat and the supercomputer could be created by a mere cosmic accident, without any living beings producing the brain, the computer and its program!
   There are several objections to Putnam’s argument. One is that it only works against the brain-in-a-vat sceptical hypothesis; one could instead use the dream hypothesis. Another is that one can accept Putnam’s argument, but retain the hypothesis by considering recently envatted brains (these brains would already have causally experienced our world) (DeRose 1999). A third objection is that Putnam disregards the flexibility of language. If it is possible that the cosmic accident produces a brain-in-a-vat powered by the program of a supercomputer, then it is also possible that the electrical pattern that causes the vision of the tree and the idea that we are brains in vats are, by pure coincidence, the same patterns that cause in us the illusion that we are seeing a tree and the ideas that we are brains-in-vats, while we really are brains-in-vats. Why not?
   A different answer to the sceptical problem consists in denial of the so-called principle of closure. According to this principle, if person a knows p and also knows that p entails q, then a also knows q. Symbolically, we can state the principle of closure as:

[aKp & aK(p → q)] → aKq

This principle is very intuitive, except in cases where the conclusion is a shortcut for many intermediary steps (say, [aKp & aK(p → p1 → … →pn→q)] → aKn), which we might leave out of consideration.
  However, objecting to the sceptic, one can say that according to the context the principle can be flawed. This is the case of answers appealing to the principle of relevant alternatives. According to them, one alternative possibility should only respect closure when it is sufficiently relevant. For instance, suppose you are in a zoo and you see a zebra. Then a sceptic comes to you and says that you cannot really know that you are seeing a zebra, since it is possible that it is only a donkey cleverly painted in a way that makes it seem to be a zebra. However, the context of a serious zoo would make it almost impossible that people would paint donkeys so that they would seem to be zebras. (Dretske 1970) According to this view, “I am seeing a zebra” does not entail “This is not a donkey cleverly painted in order to be mistakenly regarded as a zebra” and does not need to entail this. Here the principle of closure does not work.
   The problem with this argument is that it is not clear that I cannot apply the closure principle. If I know that this is a zebra, and I know that if it is a zebra then it is not a donkey, then I know that it is not a donkey. Indeed, I know that it is not a donkey because I am supported by contextual information: I know that this is a serious zoo and not a circus. I know that because it is a zebra the proposed irrelevant alternative is false.
   With the help of his argument, the defender of the relevant alternatives answer to the sceptic usually argues that it is very implausible to think that the statement “I cannot know that I am not a brain-in-a-vat” would entail something so distant from this as “I cannot know that I have two hands”. The context that would allow this possibility is too strange and remote. The answer that could be given is that we cannot make such kinds of considerations. The hypothesis that I am a brain-in-a-vat is not improbable in comparison with the hypothesis that I have two hands. We simply do not have means to attest to its probability or improbability.
   Another attempt to deal with the sceptical argument is contextualism. As we have already noted, according to contextualism the word ‘knowledge’ can be used with different degrees of precision when placed in different contexts. With this idea at hand, the contextualist will say that in the context of daily life standards of knowledge are very low, which means that we can claim knowledge of things around us, like our hands. But in sceptical contexts we cannot say that we know that we have two hands, since the standards of knowledge are too high. Consequently, both are right, the sceptical and the anti-sceptical views, since they claim different things.
   A first problem with this argument is that it is not clear that the sceptical view does demand very high standards of knowledge. Clearer is that the sceptical hypothesis cannot be probabilistically approached. It is only a logical possibility.   
   A second problem with this argument resides in the contextualist thesis. It is not clear that contextually different knowledge-claims really demand different standards of empirical precision. Repeating the objection that I made in chapter II, if I buy the ticket for a plane flight, I can say that I know my aircraft will not crash, because the probability of this occurrence is very low (1 in 5.4 million). But if I buy a lottery ticket, I am not allowed to say that I know I will not win, even if the probability of winning a lottery is much lower than the probability that my aircraft will crash (1 in 13 million for the lottery). Why don’t I say I know I will not win a lottery prize? The contextualist answer is that in the lottery context the demands of probability are much higher.
   Nevertheless, it seems to me that a better answer would be that the linguistic expression of thought is often too inexplicit, although the thought is what the sentence really means, and the sentence is the truth-bearer of the thought. In the first case, what is demanded is practical certainty, while in the second case what is demanded is logical certainty. What really changes is the thought, which is too vaguely expressed by the declarative sentence. The thought expressed in the first case is: “I know [with practical certainty] that my aircraft will not crash”, while in the second case the thought must be expressed as “I do not know [with probability 1] that I will not win the lottery”, since it is a statistic inference that demands formal certainty.

6. A more convincing answer
The solution I will propose takes as its assumption the notion that problems and their solutions are more complex than they seem at first view. Consequently, the above suggested answers, despite their originality, do not really solve the problems, since their formulations contribute to hiding complexities invisible on the argumentative surface.
   Now, the solution I intend to present is based upon a demonstration that the two arguments – for ignorance and for knowledge – implicitly contain two different concepts of external reality. These concepts, however, change their meaning from the premises to the conclusion, which makes both arguments equivocal and consequently fallacious. This solution is motivated by Rudolph Carnap’s distinction between internal and external questions of existence. According to him, internal questions are those regarding elements of a system and are answered by placing the elements adequately within the system. For example: “Is there a number 2?” is internal regarding the system of natural numbers. “Are there physical objects?” is internal regarding the system of physical things (the Thing-World). These questions are legitimate. External questions are ones regarding the existence of systems in themselves. These questions only allow pragmatic answers. We decide to accept the system of natural numbers. We decide to accept the system of physical things. These decisions arise from a pragmatic fiat. Philosophers such as P. F. Strawson (1974) and Barry Stroud (1984) have with reason criticized Carnap on the grounds that our decision of accepting a system, in particular the system of physical things, obviously does not arise from a pragmatic decision. The external world simply imposes itself on us, independently of any wish or advantage its acceptance gives us. The analysis I will propose circumvents this kind of objection, though maintaining that there are two kinds of attributions of external existence or reality.
   The first thing to do in order to reach our goal is to show that the arguments for ignorance and knowledge have implicit commitments to attributions and disattributions of reality. This is easy to show. Comcerning the argument for ignorance, we can give the following paraphrase:

   Instance of AI:
1.    I do not know that I am not in reality a brain-in-a-vat.
2.    Since I do not know that I am not in reality a brain-in-a-vat, I cannot know that I have two real hands.
3.    Hence, I cannot know that I have two real hands. (MP 1, 2)

While with the argument for knowledge the paraphrase is:

    Instance of AC:
1.    I know that I have two real hands.
2.    If I know that I have two real hands, then I know that I am not in reality a brain-in-a-vat.
3.    I know that I am not in reality a brain-in-a-vat. (MP 1, 2)

There is no doubt about this: any statement concerning an external world contains a commitment to the assumption of the external reality for what it affirms or the assumption of a lack of external reality for what it denies.
   What should be noted, however, is that the expression ‘external reality’ in our most common uses has a sense very different from the expression ‘external reality’ as used in sceptical scenarios. To show this, all we need is to note that after being liberated from a life as a brain-in-a-vat, a person will presumably not say that her earlier world was not real. She will probably say that in a sense her earlier world was very real for her or “had a perfect degree of reality” for her at the time, although in another sense it was indeed not the ultimately real world, as she subsequently discovered. This means that the person is using the word ‘real’ in two very different senses: in the first one she affirms the existence of the previous real world of the supercomputer, in the second she denies its existence. I call the first the inherent sense of external reality, a sense that allows the attribution of external reality to the contents of experience of the brain-in-a-vat when it still was a brain-in-a-vat, while the second I call the adherent sense of external reality, a sense that does not allow the attribution of external reality to the contents of experience of the brain-in-a-vat when it still was a brain-in-a-vat. In order to make the distinction clear I will separately examine the criteria of application constitutive of each of these senses of ‘external reality’. After all, by knowing the criteria of application of these words, we can better understand their meanings. Or, as Wittgenstein once said, criteria “give our words their common meaning” (1958: 57).
   Consider, first, the inherent sense of external reality. It is the usual sense which is applied when we attribute/disattribute external existence in everyday life. For instance, when we ask about the existence or reality of something we are looking for. This sense is made by a group of criteria that ordinarily must be experienced together, and it was frequently and in various ways considered by modern philosophers like Descartes, Locke, Berkeley, Hume, and even by analytic philosophers like Frege. G. E. Moore wrote an article about these criteria, summarizing them in the following sentence:

The real is something independent of the mind that is verifiable by others, continuously connected with other things, and in this way has certain causes, effects and accompaniments (I would say that it ‘displays regularities’) with the highest degree of reality. (1953)

I think I can summarize the most fundamental criteria as follows:

a.     The sensory experience of them has the greatest intensity (normally this experience is co-sensorial),
b.    They are independent of our will (typically),
c.     They are interpersonally checkable by anyone in the right position,
d.    They display regularities imposed by natural laws (on various different levels).

Separately, these conditions are not sufficient for the attribution of inherent reality to objects outside us. (Laurence Bonjour was right when he wrote that Locke’s criteria were insufficient to warrant external reality (2002: 130-35)). However, my point is that if you join together all those criteria, they are sufficient to confer inherent reality on what they apply to during the time when they are applicable. They are sufficient for a simple reason: they define what we all understand by external reality in the inherent sense of the word.
   Consider, for example, my computer. I can see it, touch it, and hear it with the maximum expected intensity, differently from the images I can form in my mind when I close my eyes. Moreover, its existence and properties are not directly dependent on my will (my mental image of it is directly dependent on my will). My hand-held computer can be an object of interpersonal experience: others can come to me, see it, and agree about its existence and properties. Finally, my computer obeys the laws of nature. It needs electrical energy to work, to respond to my commands, it will break if it is dropped from a high place, etc. If we join these four criteria of external reality together, it is impossible to imagine a situation where we cannot say that the object of experience is (inherently) real. Even if I were a brain-in-a-vat or if I were subjected to a very highly developed experience of artificial reality, my hand-computer would be very real in this sense of the word.
   What about things too small or too distant to be presently observed by us? Could we say that they are real in the inherent sense? Yes, of course, and by means of a very common mechanism of semantic extension of the three above given criteria. In an indirect way, a thing that is too small is said to be real because it is causally related to other things with which we can have sensory-perceptual contact (like tracks left by electrons in a cloud chamber). Things that are too far distant, either because they were once objects of perception and are retained in our memories (like my great-father’s house), or that were once objects of sensory perception by others (like Angkor Wat, a religious site I have never visited), satisfy the four criteria considered above, because we know that these things would satisfy those criteria to us, given the right circumstances of access. Finally, since we have always experienced new things in such ways, we inductively expect that we will continue to have new experiences of new things (the world is open). We can even join all these things in order to produce a proof of the external world as a whole, insofar as we understand it as possessing inherent reality. Indeed, this is in my view the long sought proof of the external world’s existence! This is the reason why people say that only philosophers and madman deny that our world exists. They all have implicitly made such inferences, and what they mean is that the external world is nothing but the sum of all these implicit extensions of applications of the concept of inherent reality.
   These inherent attributions/disatributions of reality are the usual ones: without perceiving this we apply them all the time. But there is another attribution/disatribution of reality that is sometimes made, which concerns what I called the adherent sense of reality or existence. This is the sense of reality that we attribute/disattribute to things like fictional reality and sceptical scenarios. We can say that the sense is different because the criteria of application have nothing to do with the four criteria of inherent reality considered above. Suppose, for a moment, that the world is a dream or that you are a brain-in-a-vat. In this case, the world continues to exist for you in the inherent sense of the word. If you fall from a tree and break a leg, your pain is as real as any other, and the leg is really broken and in need of immediate medical attention. All things appear to you with maximum sensory intensity, interpersonally and following the laws of nature (since the supercomputer program is the best on the market), which warrants the inherent existence of things around you. But in some other sense, these things are not real, and this sense is that of adherent reality. Although the world of the dreamer or the brain-in-a-vat has no adherent reality, in the inherent sense it continues to be perfectly real.
   The question now is about criteria for adherent reality. How can one know that a world is adherently unreal? The answer is: comparatively and by reasons of coherence. The concept of adherent reality is a comparative (or relative) one. A comparative concept changes its applicability in conformity with the context. For instance, the words ‘small’ and ‘big’: a baby elephant is small compared with an adult elephant; however, it is a big animal compared with a mouse (Copi). Now, suppose that you have lived your whole life as a brain-in-a-vat and that now you are liberated. Your brain was inserted in the head of a person on the planet Omega and you awake in your new world, meeting other people who resemble you as you now appear. They reveal that the experiment was motivated by the desire to create cultural diversity on the planet. Moreover, they show you the empty vat and the supercomputer, together with other fellow brains-in-vats being nourished and formatted. Surely, if all this does not drive you mad, you will compare and see that the world where you lived was a kind of sub-product of the truly real world, the world of the planet Omega, since this is the best way you have to make the information you have received until now seem coherent.
   Knowledge of adherent reality is, I think, only comparative. Before you were liberated from the vat, it would have made no sense to ask if you were a brain-in-a-vat or not. The same is true concerning ourselves and our world. To question its adherent reality makes no sense without the advent of a sceptical scenario that endows us with the expected comparative criteria. Furthermore, the comparative sense of the adherent attributions/ disattributions of reality is defeasible. You cannot be sure that the new world of the planet Omega is the ultimate one: there is no criteria for this. It is even possible that you are once more being deceived. It is possible that they only changed the program. As you awoke, the program running in the supercomputer was “being awakened from a brain-in-a-vat experiment”.
   I believe it is important to see that there is no absolute sense for adherent reality, but only a comparative one. Because of this, the question “Is our world adherently real? – is it the ultimate world?” is strictly considered meaningless if taken in a literal sense, since the comparative criteria are not at our disposal. What the question “Is our world adherently real?” means is to ask whether our world is the ultimately real one, but this is a pseudo-question that can only work as a metaphysical trap that could have and has often led to many pseudo-answers. It sounds like the question, “Why (for what reason) does the world exist?”, which has a grammatical sense and an emotive effect, but lacks cognitive sense, as much as any attempt to answer it. Then, why does it seem to make sense? Well, because we confuse it with another question that lurks in our imagination, namely: “Could our world in opposition to a sceptical scenario be comparatively classified as the adherently non-real one?”, and this question makes full sense. For this reason, “I know that our world is adherently real” is a senseless pseudo-affirmation, unless it is understood as “If I were liberated in a sceptical scenario, I would (comparatively) know that the actual world is the adherently real one”. Wittgenstein considered claims of knowledge that make no sense, for instance, if in the presence of another person one suddenly says, “I know that you are in front of me” without any purpose (1984a), and I think we have such a case here. With pseudo-questions like “Can we know if our world is real?”, intending to use the word ‘real’ in an adherent absolute sense – whích philosophers have often meant – we have already transgressed the limits of what can be meaningfully known.
   Now, having understood the two senses of the word ‘external reality’ (or ‘existence’), we are prepared to see why both the sceptical argument of ignorance and the anti-sceptical argument of knowledge are equivocal and consequently fallacious. It is because in both cases we imperceptibly pass from a commitment to one sense of ‘external reality’ to a commitment to the other sense of ‘external reality’. In order to make the point clear, definitely breaking down the arguments, all we need to do is to make explicit the commitments to reality/non-reality implicit in each argument.
   The first sentence of the argument of ignorance will be as follows:

   Instance of AI:
1.    I cannot know that I am not an adherently real brain-in-a-vat.
2.    Since I cannot know that I am not an adherently real brain-in-a-vat, I cannot know that I have two adherently real hands.
3.    Hence, I cannot know that I have two inherently real hands. (MP 1, 2)

This is the most natural way to interpret the argument, choosing the sense of reality in accordance with the statements’ semantic context. In the first two sentences we have a sceptical scenario, and the senses of external reality contextually suggested are adherent ones. In the conclusion, however, the sceptical wish is to convince us that we cannot attribute inherent reality to anything. The sceptic intends to give us the comforting sense that our hands, like all other external things, are ethereal objects like ghosts in haze and that we are living in a fictive world without material reality. If the conclusion were, “Hence, I cannot know that I have two adherently real hands,” the argument would be sound, but trivial. Indeed, this we cannot know, since outside the sceptical comparative scenario we have no way to use comparative attributions of reality or non-reality. Obviously, this result can be extended to the generalized formal version of the argument of ignorance.
   Curiously, a similar fallacy plagues the argument of knowledge. Once we expose the implicit assumptions of reality, it looks like this:

      Instance of AC:
1.    I know I have two inherently real hands.[9]
2.    If I know that I have two adherently real hands, then I know that I am not an adherently real brain-in-a-vat.
3.    Hence, I know that I am not an adherently real brain-in-a-vat. (MP 1, 2)

The anti-sceptic makes an equivocal step from the first to the second premise of the argument in his attempt to prove that he knows that this is our ultimate world, resistant to sceptical doubts. But his equivocal conclusion lies beyond the limits of our knowledge. It makes no sense to ask for something that lacks any verifying criteria, since the statement requires an absolute attribution of adherent reality.
   In conclusion, scepticism about induction and scepticism about the external world have something in common. Both are fallacious arguments based on disregard for the limits of our knowledge, which is reflected in the limitations of meaningful language and thought.
















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[1] Hume used the word ‘object’; most authors use the word ‘event’. I prefer to use the word ‘thing’ in a wide sense for reasons that will be made clear later. 
[2] By reasons of simplicity of exposition, I am abbreviating what should be rather said: “The conjunctions of things found in the past must be approximately like the conjunctions of things to be found in the future”.
[3]  For reasons of simplicity of exposition, I am also using abbreviated language in PU(ii) and PU(iii). What I mean is rather “The conjunctions of things in the recent past must be like the conjunctions of things in the more recent past” (PU(ii)), and “The conjunctions of things in a next location in space must be like the conjunctions of things in the already known space” (PU(iii)).
[4] I always keep in mind a sufficiently unified system of reference. I need to say this because relativity theory has shown that present, past and future vary according to systems of reference moving at great speeds in relation to each other.
[5] What we could do is to search for a still more precise treatment. It seems plausible to think that the approximation of future and past tends to have a form of two opposed exponential curves that touch at the point called the present, etc.
[6] One could object that the principle of verification was long since been debunked, first by the positivists of the Vienna Circle and then by philosophers like W. V-O. Quine and even Saul Kripke. One can, however, maintain Wittgenstein’s earlier suggestion that the (cognitive) meaning of a statement is in some way given by the group of procedures we use to verify it, some more central, others not. (For a detailed rebuttal of straw man objections to semantic verificationism, see Costa 2018, Ch. V.)
[7] In On Certainty Wittgenstein gives several examples of how our imagination can betray us, making us see meaning where there is none.
[8] For an answer to Hilary Putnam’s argument against h3, see the next section.
[9] Note that I cannot interpret 1 as “I know that I have two adherently real hands”, since this cannot be true.